The 2024 election cost organized labor — especially the UAW — influence in Washington, D.C. It also handed an old foe, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, more sway over industry and labor in the new administration.
The election of Donald Trump shows that the impact of the UAW isn’t what it once was.
After first backing Democratic incumbent Joe Biden and then his successor, Kamala Harris, the United Auto Workers suffered a stinging defeat just as she did, highlighting the limit of its influence and political power as former President Donald Trump recaptured the White House.
The broad analysis of the election trends indicates working class voters, including Latinos and African Americans, broke for Trump, handing the Presidency back to Trump as organized labor’s campaigns for the Democratic ticket failed.
Trump election is challenge for UAW
“The UAW has had many ups and downs,” throughout its history, noted Arthur Wheaton, a labor expert from Cornell University. “President-elect Trump is known for saying many things. It is unclear what actions he will take compared to promises made,’ said Wheaton, adding the incoming administration will be a challenge for UAW President Shawn Fain.
UAW President Shawn Fain now faces a future where the UAW may not hold the sway it once did.
Trump is also unpredictable, Wheaton wrote in an email. “The next four years will be interesting and impact how blue-collar workers respond in the next election cycle,” he said.
Biden surrogates failed to make the case for Democrats when it came to the economy, despite unemployment sitting at record lows and the stock market at record highs. However, many working-class voters were troubled by the high price of groceries, gas and rent, analysts said after the votes were counted last week.
Working class stress diminishes union influence
The UAW and organized labor’s political operation helped win critical Senate races for the Democrats in the Rust Belts states of Michigan and Wisconsin.
President Joe Biden accepted the UAW’s endorsement for his 2024 election campaign.
“The UAW did have an impact. Most of the money they spend goes for outreach to members. The problem is the unions do not reach as many households,” said Brian Rothenberg, a former communications director for the UAW, who is now a political consultant in Ohio.
“There are a lot of blue-collar workers who aren’t in unions now,” said Rothenberg, pointing to Warren and Mahoning counties in northeastern Ohio around Lordstown, which were once solidly Democratic. However, they responded to Trump’s promise to reduce inflation and boost employment, Rothenberg said.
Musk influence becoming big issue
For unions in general, and the UAW in particular, the wild card in the aftermath of the election could easily come down to the role Trump hands to the aforementioned Musk, a fierce opponent of working-class solidarity, who is already waging court battles aimed at undermining the National Labor Relations Board, Rothenberg said.
Not only is the UAW not on great terms with Trump, they’ve been feuding with his latest appointee, Elon Musk.
Since 2017, Musk has deployed supervisors in his plants, private investigators, and platoons of lawyers to block the UAW, and fight claims of discrimination, and he wants the NLRB abolished.
“Musk is the unknown for the entire industry,” said Rothenberg. The issue comes down to how much sway Trump gives Musk. Right now, Trump seems enamored of Musk, and even posed with him in a post-election “family” photograph with the President-elect’s grandchildren.
Musk appears eager to have a large voice of new Trump administration’s power over the automotive industry, including the future of electric vehicles in the U.S. “It’s incredibly complex because there has been billions of dollars of investment,” noted Rothenberg, who was responsible for the UAW’s first study of the impact of EVs on jobs across the industry.
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Musk already grabbing power
Rothenberg, however, added he does not expect Trump to court Detroit’s automakers as he did in his first term. “I don’t think there will be a summit,” like the one Trump held not long after his first inauguration to which the UAW was invited.
The UAW, once solidly Democratic, isn’t that way anymore.
Additionally, for months, Trump has been critical of UAW President Fain, making it easier for Musk to shape labor policies in the new administration.
Fain, however, appears ready to argue Trump’s plans won’t help the working class since billionaires are shaping them. “We aren’t sure what Donald Trump, Elon Musk and the rest of their billionaire friends have planned for our communities, our families, and our union,” Fain said before the election.
The first test of Trump’s labor policy could come as soon as January, when the International Longshoremen Association is threatening to resume its strike along the Gulf and East coasts in a dispute over automation. Trump will be under pressure from business allies to intervene, and any intervention would be viewed as a betrayal of his working-class voters, except on places like Fox News, which is vociferously anti-union and anti-union workers in its coverage of the news.
Big fights lie ahead, says Fain
Trump said during his campaign he’d welcome Chinese auto brands setting up U.S. plants.
“We’ve said all along that no matter who is in the White House, our fight remains the same. The fight to fix our broken trade laws like the USMCA continues. The fight for good union jobs and U.S. leadership in the emerging battery industry continues. The fight for a secure retirement for everyone in this country continues. The fight for a living wage, affordable health care, and time for our families continues,” Fain said after the election.
“It’s time for Washington, DC to put up or shut up, no matter the party, no matter the candidate. Will our government stand with the working class, or keep doing the bidding of the billionaires? That’s the question we face today,” he added.
For the UAW, the immediate challenges include whether the Trump administration will deliver the money promised by Biden to reopen the Stellantis plant in Illinois. Another key issue for the UAW and others will be the appointment of a new general counsel for NLRB, which could throttle the UAW’s organizing effort in the South. The Biden-appointed counsel has been pro-union, which has led to conflicts with business groups as well as Musk.
But Fain faces his own challenges since many UAW members voted for Trump despite the union’s efforts to vote Democratic. “Shawn Fain needs to be held accountable for HIS failed endorsement,” one UAW member observed on social media. “He’s become a liability to our Union.”
“Crimps UAW Political Influence”
“Destroys” would be a better word.